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Chicago, Spokane duel on NFL Network Friday
2010-07-23
This week’s Friday night NFL Network broadcast of the Arena Football League features Chicago visiting Spokane in a battle of division leaders in the National Conference. Both teams have clinched playoff spots, with the Shock having wrapped up the West Division as well. Spokane has clinched the top seed in the conference playoffs already, and has little to play for. Thanks to Rush QB Russ Michna being placed on IR Wednesday, bettors have seen the line climb from the Shock as 7-point favorites at opener to 10-points now, according to Sportsbook.com.
Chicago wraps up its season here and needs a win to maintain any chance at winning the Midwest Division over Milwaukee. The Iron have games remaining at Iowa and Cleveland, and with the way they have struggled on the road this season, Chicago has to like its chances. Still, taking care of business here first is job #1.
This will be the largest underdog pointspread that Chicago has faced all season long, and it is warranted only by the Shock’s success, not by the situation of what’s at stake for each team. Spokane has won 10 games in a row, including four at home, but is a modest 6-4 ATS during the stretch. Making matters even stranger in terms of the line, Spokane hasn’t been favored by this much over any team in two months when they were laying 13.5-points to lowly Utah.
Spokane does solid work on both sides of the football, scoring 62.6 PPG and allowing 52.1 PPG. Each of those figures represents the #2 ranking in the Arena Football League currently, behind Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, respectively. Chicago does its best work on offense through the air, as Michna was averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt, third in the league.
J.J. Ratternik will step in for Michna and is looking to make his Rush debut. He spent the 2009 season with the Quad City Steamwheelers playing in 10 games and finishing the season with 54 touchdowns and a 105.64 rating, so it isn’t like he is inexperienced with the AFL rules.
There is only one StatFox Power Trend worthy of significance heading into Friday night’s contest and it concerns Chicago’s troubles against good offensive teams:
• CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 55 or more points/game since 1996. The average score was CHICAGO 47.1, OPPONENT 57.1 - (Rating = 0*)
The problem with that angle, at this point, there’s no definitive word on how much Spokane’s coaching staff plans to utilize the services of quarterback Kyle Rowley or any of the other starters.
The StatFox Power Line shows Spokane should be favored by 14 points, but the Outplay Factor Rating indicates only 7.5 points prior to home field advantage. Considering that Chicago is a prominent 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS on the road (same SU mark as Spokane at home), it would be a stretch to figure that edge is 3-points or more.
Don’t be surprised to see a more motivated Chicago team come up big in front of a national TV audience at 8:00 PM ET.
Injuries are apart of the game and not every player can be on point all the time. But enough is enough, the Raiders HAVE to turn it around in 2010 or some heads will roll in their organization.
Head Coach Tom Cable is a hard working, blue-collar, and focused coach who before the 2010 season was in way over his head. But now the Raiders have the pieces in place to make a run at least at between 8-8 and 9-7 records. Playoffs? That is going too far. Cable's job hinges on if Jason Campbell has the season he is capable of and the Raiders receivers and running backs play to and above their potential, and the NFL betting community agrees.
The Raiders have a defense good enough to keep them in games, although the youth and lack of long term starting experience on that unit is something to be pondered about. Talent and athleticism has never been a problem for Raiders defenses in the past 2000s decade, it has been consistency, injuries, and underachievement.
The defensive line and the secondary are the positions where its members are most proven and experienced. The projected starters for the defensive line are defensive ends Lamarr Houston (rookie-2nd round draft pick) and Richard Seymour, as well as defensive tackles Tommy Kelly and Desmond Bryant. Two of those players [Seymour and Kelly] started together in 2009 for the Raiders and right now they are by far the most proven players and the best of the lot of the starter on D-Line. Plus the Raiders have alternates/backups all over the place on this unit who can provide pass rush, depth, and relief among other things for the starters.
As for the linebackers there is just too much youth and unproven players there to expect too much out of them. Rookie first round pick Rolando McClain takes over for the traded Kirk Morrison at inside linebacker. McClain has a heck of a road to cover to replace Morrison, but eventually McClain will be better than Morrison. Trevor Scott is a converted defensive end who was not a full-time starter in 2009 and the recent Kamerion Wimbley in some respects was considered a bust in Cleveland. Wimbley has so much talent as a pass rusher but is up to him and coaches Mike Haluchak (linebackers) and John Marshall (defensive coordinator) to coax that talent out of him.
The Raiders have one of the better secondaries in the AFC, but free safety Michael Huff's game has to catch up with the rest of the secondary for the unit to be at its best.
The wide receivers in 2010 have got to take pressure off of Pro Bowl tight end Zach Miller. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens, and Johnnie Lee Higgins have to pick up where they left off from 2009 and start seriously thinking about approaching between 800 through 1,000 yard seasons (especially Murphy and Heyward-Bey). That foursome MUST step up and be held accountable for new quarterback Jason Campbell to succeed. Heyward-Bey has the dilemma of not only proving that he was worthy of being picked eight in the 2009 NFL Draft, but that the Raiders made the right choice in selecting him over the more talented and Michael Crabtree who went to the 49ers a little latter in the first round of that draft. All those in NFL betting know that the Raiders are famous for poor draft picks.
Bottom line is if the Raiders' receivers and running backs don't stay healthy and consistent in 2010, the Raiders are in trouble no matter how good their defense plays. Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, and Justin Fargas (and maybe even on the downside of his career, and fellow running back Michael Bennett) have to stay in the lineup and use the talent they were born with. EVERY single position on the Raiders has to work in 2010 for them to do anything in 2010. If there ever was a team in the NFL in 2010 who needs consistency from every position on its team to make to at least 7-9 or 8-8, its the Oakland Raisers.
NFL betting is not keen on the Raiders in 2010, what do you think? Place your NFL bet now at www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
The Saints can and they should make another run at a Super Bowl win, but it will not be easy by any means. And since when has anything been easy in the NFL? Never that's when. The Saints didn't lose too much in free agency from the 2009 season, so that shouldn't be too much of a problem, and the NFL betting agrees.
As far as gaining a free agent, the Saints get former Chicago Bears defensive end Alex Brown. He is past his prime but he still can play and provide pass rush for the Saints in 2010. Brown, defensive back Leigh Torrence, and fellow defensive end Jimmy Wilkerson will do their part to help the Saints defense. Neither one of their free agent pickups are stars but they can help the Saints in their own ways.
The Saints ranked 25th in total defense in 2009 and they ranked 20th or below in all the most vital defensive categories. So those aforementioned defensive free agents and the incumbent defensive players on the Saints have to either play up to their abilities or above their heads for the Saints to get back to the promise land. Their defense has nowhere to go but up, because their offense can only cover up the defense's shortcomings for so long like they did in 2009.
Drew Brees is a bonafied star at quarterback with his accuracy, consistency, and smarts. The reigning Super Bowl XLIV MVP has the competitiveness and the smarts to not be one of those players who rests on his laurels. Brees will give everything he has and more to get to Super Bowl XLV and win it. Plus Brees has talent up the ying-yang at receiver at his disposal.. All these stretch the defense receivers and tight ends he has to work with, has to make any quarterback get giddy.
The Saints have a good enough defense (but they need improvement) to help the offense make it seem like they don't have to go at it alone. The most talented part of the Saints defense is the defensive line. But that is not to say that it is the best part of their defense, because the linebackers are the most productive portion of their defense. Defensive tackles Remi Ayodele and Sedrick Ellis will have been together on the interior of the defensive line for three years when the 2010 season rolls around. Their main functions are to keep offensive linemen off of inside linebackers Jonathan Vilma (starter) and alternates Anthony Waters and Marvin Mitchell, as well as provide pass rush and defend the run. The first seven players of the Saints defense (defensive line and linebackers) are the most vital part of their defense bar none. Because if they don't provide pressure and defend the run then the sort of underachieving secondary won't eat. Free Safety Darren Sharper is old as dirt and he can only do so much, although he still can play and he is very effective (refer to 2009 game film).
This has got to be the season Reggie Bush stands up and uses the prodigious gifts that he was born. Okay so he is not a durable or every down back. So what. But an average of 4 touchdowns on the ground and 2 receiving per year since 2006, isn't going to cut it any more. The Saints have seven running backs on their current roster as of this writing, and three of them are fullbacks or are strictly around for their blocking and bulk size. So Bush has no excuse as far as worrying about some other back cutting into his carries, except for maybe bigger and physical back Pierre Thomas who gained 793 yards on the ground in 2009 which led the team. Luckily in 2009 the Saints running game was good enough to take pressure off the passing game, which all the NFL betting community are keeping a close eye on.
The Saints are good to go on offense and defense (especially offense) to gain another Super Bowl ring, but as any former Super Bowl winner will say, "It's hard to repeat." The Saints have a target on their back for the 2010 season like they have never had before in from 1967-2008 or 42 years of service.
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