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INDIANAPOLIS is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1993 in the preseason. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.5, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 3*)
Tim Tebow in the NFL
2010-05-04
Every NFL betting man wonders, Can Tebow do it in the NFL? It didn’t take long for the football world to see where he landed, Tim Tebow’s first round draft selection by the Denver Broncos leaves many professionals scratching their heads and many fans saying, “I told you so.” The professionals tend to forget that behind the ridiculous amount of press there exists a legacy to back up Tebow’s hype, you do not become the first underclassman to win the Heisman Trophy on smoke and mirror, Tebow has massive talent.
In the pros, Tebow is going to have to adjust his game. His unpredictable nature (will he throw or do it all himself?) made him a force to be reckoned with. In his new house that is a dangerous choice with defenders who triple your size. This man has accuracy, a hell of an arm (9286 passing yards), is an amazing decision maker, and has the ability to run if necessary.
If he can gel the team, get them to trust him, there is no reason he can’t be successful. The Broncos defense stepped it up last year, if they rally behind this quarterback, his crazy antics just might work. Everyone laughed at Miami for the wildcat, but sometimes when you bring a little bit of college to the pros it can have a great effect. With that said the Broncos are going to be a fascinating team to bet on in 2010, and if you are an NFL bettor there is no better place to make those bets than www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
All that being said, what was Coach McDaniels thinking? Practically no one believes Tebow is ready to start in the big time, so why waste your high draft pick on Tebow? The answer must be leadership. Since the firing of Shanahan, the unceremonious, pouty departure of Jay Cutler, and the spectacular unraveling of a 6-0 start last season, McDaniels needs a leader. That is something you cannot measure with statistics or size.
No matter what you personally think of Tebow, I hate him for being a Gator, you have to respect what he can do to unite a team. The Broncos have been left leaderless for years. Shanahan was given too much power running the offense and the defense; he lost points with the players. Cutler was their touchstone and he abandoned them. All they had was Marshall and he was toast by the end of the season, not to mention gone now too. They need someone to bring them together. McDaniels lost their trust once the losing began and he knows he can only lead the team if they are all on his side. Tebow brings loyalty wherever he goes.
While the rest of the commentaries will cover statistics and all the reasons Tim Tebow should have been a third round pick at best, I say this is an inspired move to remind people that winning comes from being a team. Now, the question remains, will seasoned pro players be willing to take their cues from a young punk? They have been hurting for so long, ripped apart by loosing their motivation, I think they are ready for Tebow’s brand of camaraderie. Those players are ready to bet on Tim Tebow leading them to the playoffs.
You can watch it across the sports board, teams that fall apart because all of their eggs lie with one player. Look at the Lakers right now, heck, look at the 49ers for YEARS. The amazing thing about Tim Tebow is that no matter how much he becomes the star or leader, he is ultimately a team player with trust in everyone around him. When you build a team like that, you are slated to be the underdog with enough heart to come through.
What does all this mean to the Denver Broncos next season? I think it means they are going to cover a lot of spreads. The Broncos will be underdogs often according to the experts, but Tebow is a master at finding a way to win, stats or no stats. Will Tebow lead the league in passing? No. But he will win games, and he will make a lot of savvy NFL Bettors very happy next year.
Sunday: Early NFL Kickoffs (1:00 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2009-11-16
With one game already in the books for the Week 10 NFL slate, there are 13 more slated for Sunday. Eight of those games are early kickoffs being served to regional markets. The biggest matchup is that for the lead in the AFC North Division as 6-2 teams square off in Pittsburgh. Elsewhere, Minnesota and New Orleans will also be in action. Read on for some key betting tidbits on those games, plus a BEST BET writeup on the Jacksonville-NY Jets contest from the StatFox Platinum Sheet. Get the latest key info on all the action on the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages of Sportsbook.com.
(219) CINCINNATI at (220) PITTSBURGH
The AFC North race figures to be a slugfest the rest of the way, with all three top teams within striking distance of one another. The winners of the head-to-head battles figure to gain the upper hand. Prior to the first meeting of ‘09 between these teams, the winner in this series was usually Pittsburgh, who had gone 26-9 SU & 22-12 ATS vs. Cincy since ’92. The Bengals turned the tables though in Week 3, pulling out a 23-20 upset at home in the final minute as a 3-point dog. The Steelers will look to avenge that defeat and extend a 10-game home winning streak on Sunday. They are 7-3 ATS in that span, allowing just 14.1 PPG. The Bengals are off the home win over Baltimore, and boast a respectable 11-9 ATS record on the divisional road under Marvin Lewis.
(223) DETROIT at (224) MINNESOTA
Minnesota comes out of its bye week in control of the NFC North and riding high after winning at Lambeau Field. The Vikings square off with another divisional foe on Sunday when they host Detroit. Minnesota has won all three divisional games in ‘09, both SU & ATS, and is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its L5 post-bye week games at home. They are 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the L9 meetings vs. Detroit. The Lions have lost all three of their divisional games, and have been outscored by 21.4 PPG. They come off another road loss, at Seattle, and have now lost 16 straight games away from, including seven vs. NFC North foes with an average losing margin of 17.0 PPG. These teams have played a relatively low scoring series at the Metrodome, going under in 10 of the L15 meetings.
(225) NEW ORLEANS at (226) ST LOUIS
New Orleans went through its first half of the 2009 schedule unbeaten. If the Saints are to fall a first time, it doesn’t figure to be the next two weeks, as they face two of the league’s worst teams on the road starting in St. Louis. New Orleans is a 14-point favorite, the largest chalk line it has faced in the Sean Payton era. They are 9-1 ATS as road chalk in his tenure, but just 1-4 ATS laying double-digits. The Rams are on a 4-14 ATS slide vs. teams scoring 27 PPG or more, and have lost six straight, both SU & ATS, vs. teams outscoring their opponents by >6.0 PPG, the average loss being 24.2 PPG. St. Louis has been particularly bad at home, having lost eight straight games, going 2-6 ATS. They are 0-3 SU & ATS in ’09 and being outscored by 27.7 PPG.
StatFox Steve had this to say about the Jaguars-Jets contest: Both Jacksonville and the Jets are 4-4 after eight games and each remains in the hunt for a wildcard spot in the AFC. Which team is better suited to compete the rest of the way though? That’s a pretty easy question to answer when you look at a few simple factors. First, Jacksonville’s best win came at Houston, but other than that, the Jaguars have beaten Tennessee, St. Louis, and Kansas City. In fact, they have played one of the league’s softest schedules to date. The result of their 4-4 mark now is a StatFox Outplay Factor Rating of -8.9. Normally I’d guess that a team with that rating would be lucky to be 2-6. Meanwhile, the Jets have an OF of +5.1, and should be much better than 4-4 with that level of performance. In short, New York seems far more capable of making a run at the postseason. Well rested, that run starts here. Play: NY Jets -6.5
NFL: Arizona at Philadelphia (8:15 PM ET, NFL Network)
2008-11-27
Limping into Thanksgiving after losing by 29 points in Baltimore and enduring the embarrassment of tying lowly Cincinnati, Philadelphia now has to pull itself together and slow down a former NFC East rival in Arizona. Coming up on the losing end would finish off any playoff hopes for the second straight season. The Eagles may have to lean on their defense, or hope QB Donovan McNabb, benched for the second half at Baltimore, returns to his earlier form. With all of the issues in Philly, bettors may be surprised to see HC Andy Reid’s team as a 3-point favorite.
It’s a shame most folks do not have the NFL Network, since the Cardinals possess a high-flying offense that boasts an MVP candidate in Kurt Warner, who’s on pace to throw for more than 5,000 yards. Warner’s already at 3,506 yards and has thrown 21 touchdowns, including 11 to Anquan Boldin and six to Larry Fitzgerald. He has recorded seven 300-yard passing games, including five in a row. This group is #3 in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points per game. Despite the offense, the Redbirds have to overcome being 9-20 ATS as road dogs after SU and cover defeat.
Although he has struggled to get going since taking over the starting job in Week 9, running back Tim Hightower has been punishing in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He scored twice in last week’s 37-29 loss to the New York Giants and has nine touchdowns in 106 attempts.
For all the acclaim the offense receives, Arizona has been effective in slowing down the run. Led by linebackers Karlos Dansby and Gerald Hayes, the squad has allowed fewer than 90 yards rushing per game and eight rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals are in potentially tough spot against a burdened opponent off a loss and they scored less than 22 points, with 6-20 ATS record.
The aforementioned 13-13 tie put the Eagles in a corner and has forced head coach Andy Reid’s team to win in hostile environments like New York and Washington. The last time Philadelphia was at Lincoln Financial Field it allowed an astounding 401 total yards to the Giants, 219 of which were on the ground.
McNabb may lead one of the league’s top passing attacks (255 yards per game) but he was benched last week after coughing up the ball three times in the first half. McNabb completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes against the Giants, Bengals and Ravens and has cooled off since the Week 7 bye. Coach Andy Reid has said McNabb would start, yet one has to wonder if that is byproduct of short week rather than preference. Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS since 2003 after scoring 10 or less points.
Rookie wideout DeSean Jackson has been a nice addition with a team-leading 47 receptions for 699 yards but has only one touchdown catch. Throw in the fact that no other receiver has more than 30 receptions, and you see why the team has been in a rut. Even Brian Westbrook (34 grabs) has been stymied, for a team that is 0-7 ATS off consecutive road games.
The NFL Network will have this NFC contest for everyone who is stuffed and had their nap starting at 8:15 Eastern.
Thanksgiving Desert Angle- If both teams were underdogs in last game, the home teams is 7-3 ATS and the UNDER is 7-3.
NFL: NY Jets at San Diego (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2008-09-19
Two teams coming off of season defining losses will meet on Monday night when San Diego hosts New York. The Chargers, robbed of a win at Denver by QB Jay Cutler and an errant referee whistle, find themselves winless after two weeks and looking for answers. They’ll try to find them at home when they host the Jets, who lost an equally painful game at home vs. New England. Instead of Favre & Co. taking the baton from the Pats, it appears the 5-time AFC East champs could be taking another lap. For the Jets, this is the first trip to San Diego since the playoff win of ’04. Chargers’ coach Norv Turner is 15-31 ATS at home off a loss. The Jets have played 11-7 ATS football on the road under Eric Mangini and are making just a second MNF appearance in his tenure.
The season is only two games old, but already the Chargers have received their fair share of bad luck. San Diego had its seven-game home winning streak snapped with a last-second, 26-24 defeat to Carolina in Week 1, and then found out their top defensive player, Shawne Merriman (NFL-best 39.5 sacks over the past three seasons), will miss the rest of the campaign after surgery to repair two torn ligaments in his left knee. The stop unit was already thin after fellow linebacker Stephen Cooper, last year’s leading tackler (108 stops), was suspended for the first four contests.
The good news is that while their defense will likely take a step backwards, the Bolts remain one of the top offensive teams in the league. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson looks to be back in top form after suffering a torn MCL during last year’s playoffs, nearing the century mark against the Panthers but gaining just 26 yards on 10 attempts in a 39-38 loss at Denver. Quarterback Philip Rivers, once an afterthought in the offensive attack due to San Diego’s rushing dominance, has become a weapon in his own right, throwing for 594 yards and six touchdowns against the Panthers and Broncos.
They’ll be going up against a Jets team which added several key players on both sides of the ball this offseason in an attempt to bounce back from a brutal four-win campaign. First and foremost on the list was future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre, who threw for two scores against the Dolphins and then followed that up with 181 yards passing and one touchdown in a 19-10 loss to New England. Favre’s impact will be felt not only in his ability to stay calm under pressure late in games, but also in the fact that now the Jets have the vertical, downfield passing game they lacked under Chad Pennington.
Without Cooper and Merriman, the Chargers might be more susceptible to giving up big chunks of yardage on the ground (they yielded 142 to Carolina). The Jets, who added left guard Alan Faneca and right tackle Damien Woody to their offensive line, should open big holes for Thomas Jones.
The additions of nose tackle Kris Jenkins and linebacker Calvin Pace should help them solidify a defense which has struggled to stop the run over the past several seasons.
PREDICTION
Both teams are coming off emotional divisional contests, but it may be asking too much of the Jets to travel cross-country and knock off one of the league’s best home teams (San Diego is 15-2 in its last 17 at Qualcomm Stadium) with an 0-2 record. But if anyone can pull out a win, it’s Favre, who is 5-0 in his career against the Bolts. With Tomlinson leading the way, Gang Green will likely fall just short.
SAN DIEGO 24, N.Y. JETS 21
NFL - Washington at New York Giants (8:15 PM ET – NBC)
2007-12-17
The Giants have secured a playoff spot and unless unusual circumstances arise, seem set to travel to Tampa Bay in the wildcard round. There are still three games to take care of before then however, starting Sunday at home vs. division rival Washington.
HC Tom Coughlin’s team has played better football on the road, going just 3-3 SU & ATS at home in ’07 and 4-7 SU & 3-7-1 ATS in the L11 overall. In fact, in the second half of the L2 seasons, they are 0-6 ATS at home. The Redskins are off a big win vs. Chicago that kept them in the wildcard hunt. Nothing but wins the rest of the way will make that happen though. Unfortunately, their L3 opponents are a combined 27-12. The favorite in the L15 games of this head-to-head series in New York is 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS.
What was once a promising season of hope in the nation’s capital is now another in a growing line of failures for the once-great Joe Gibbs. Young QB Jason Campbell continues to build numbers but has fallen prey to mistakes he avoided in the early weeks. The defense has the tools to work as a unit to fear, but the tragic loss of safety Sean Taylor could be just as damaging on the field as it has been off. A once-lethal rushing defense may now find flaws exposed as the defensive backfield, already in trouble, is without their top ball-hawking leader.
The Giants are manic depressive. Their offense comes and goes without warning as QB Eli Manning continues to draw criticism for his lack of progress, nagged by poor mistakes that oft result in turnover and an inability to lead this team to a higher stage. However, it may be fair to point a finger at the defense. Surrendering 41 points to a Minnesota team void of a passing attack perplexes, indicating the defensive backfield is susceptible if the rush to apply pressure on the QB fails.
Keys to the Game
It’s hard to call the Giants impressive as they march towards the postseason. A better word might be sufficient, an upgrade over last year. Manning’s horribly-inconsistent play is a real conundrum, leaving little room for error. Washington has had a few more days to grieve which could help the team refocus on the road in an NFC East encounter. Interestingly, teams like the Redskins that were favored at home on a Thursday and are now road dogs have posted 12-4 ATS record.
Trends
~ Washington is 3-14 ATS in their last division road game of the season.
~ The NY Giants are 0-6 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatFox Edge - Giants cover
