2010-07-06
The Cardinals have won back-to-back NFC West Division titles, but a lot changed to their roster since January, most notably at quarterback where Kurt Warner has since retired. That bit of news plus some other key departures has Arizona hopes at a three-peat in danger. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series begins with a look at the 2010 Arizona Cardinals, including key stats & strength ratings, plus the outlook for the 2010 season and a prediction against the Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins prop.
2009 Record:11-7 (+0 ML Units), 9-8 ATS
DIVISION:NFC West
COACH:Ken Whisenhunt, 4th year (31-13 SU, 31-22 ATS)
STADIUM:University of Phoenix Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:60 to 1, NFC Title:28 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:17 (#21 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+0.4 (#17 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 11-7 ~ 31-23 (57%)
ATS: 9-8 ~ 31-22 (58%)
Preseason ATS: 0-4 ~ 3-9 (25%)
Home ATS: 5-4 ~ 17-10 (63%)
Road ATS: 4-4 ~ 14-12 (54%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 11-7 (61%)
Conference ATS: 7-7 ~ 22-19 (54%)
Favorite ATS: 3-7 ~ 14-13 (52%)
Underdog ATS: 6-1 ~ 17-9 (65%)
Over-Under: 7-11 ~ 32-22 (59%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +3.3 (#12 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +0.0 (#17 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.33 (#13 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +2.14 (#10 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -7 (#24 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 355.4 (#12 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 355.4 (#23 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 18.69 (27th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at St Louis, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - OAKLAND, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - at San Diego, 4:15 PM
10/10/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 - at Seattle, 4:05 PM
10/31/10 - TAMPA BAY, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - SEATTLE, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
11/29/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 8:30 PM
12/5/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 - DENVER, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
12/25/10 - DALLAS, 7:30 PM
1/2/11 - at San Francisco, 4:15 PM
Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010
ARIZONA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more PYA since '07. The Average Score was ARIZONA 26.7, OPPONENT 23.8
2010 OUTLOOK
The last time the Cardinals won back-to-back division titles prior to 2008 and ’09, the team was located in St. Louis. However, just when it seemed like the franchise was set to become a consistent playoff contender, the retirement of QB Kurt Warner, trade of WR Anquan Boldin and the loss of LB Karlos Dansby to free agency has taken away a strong core of talent, putting another postseason berth for head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s team in jeopardy…Although Arizona’s offensive numbers were down a bit from its Super Bowl season, the Cardinals still managed to place 14th in the NFL in total offense (344.4 YPG). Now that Warner is gone, replacing his 8,336 yards passing and 56 touchdowns the past two seasons is a huge question lingering over the offense. Matt Leinart, whose career has been slowed by injury and inconsistency, and newly acquired Derek Anderson (Browns), are next in line. Of course, any receiving corps that has the services of Larry Fitzgerald will present problems for opposing secondaries, and Beanie Wells should continue to improve after leading the team with 793 yards rushing (7 TD’s) as a rookie. The offensive line has a new face in free-agent guard Alan Faneca (Jets)…After finishing 20th in the NFL in total defense (346.4 YPG) and 14th in scoring defense (20.3 PPG), the stop unit more or less fell apart in the postseason, allowing 90 points in two games. Gone from the unit are LB Karlos Dansby, FS Antrel Rolle, and DE Bertrand Berry…With Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin, the Cardinals had one of the NFL’s most potent passing attacks. Now that Warner and Boldin are out of the picture, the running game may play more a prominent role. The defense, minus key contributors, will have to step up for the Cardinals to contend for a third straight NFC West title.
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Matt Leinart is 7-10 as a starter for Arizona throughout his career, and with a more regular gig, he's capable of leading this team to a better mark than that down the road. However, the loss of Boldin and a few key defensive players makes that a tough task for 2010. If you consider that this team was average last season (dead even with opponents in yards per game), they look a lot less than average now. UNDER 7.5.
