2009-10-16

Chicago enjoyed its off week last Sunday and comes into this Week 6 matchup with Atlanta on a 3-game winning streak. A fourth straight win would match the Bears’ longest streak since the Super Bowl season of ’06. However, an Atlanta team coming off its best game of the season is in waiting. The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite, and are getting heavy backing from bettors. Over 80% of early players at Sportsbook.com expect a comfortable win by the hosts.

This will be Chicago’s second appearance on NBC Sunday night already, but it won’t be easy, as HC Lovie Smith’s team lost in Atlanta in ’08, 22-20. Overall though, they are on a 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS run vs. the Falcons. Under Smith, the Bears are 1-6 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest and 1-7 ATS when scoring 25+ points in back-to-back games. Atlanta won big at San Francisco, 45-10, and is one a 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS run at home in Mike Smith’s short tenure. They face a difficult stretch of four road game in their next five following this one.

Chicago has done an outstanding job recovering from a Sunday night defeat in Green Bay in Week 1, as well as the loss of linebacker Brian Urlacher, ripping off comeback wins over Pittsburgh, Seattle and Detroit to head into its bye with a 3-1 mark. If not for a late home-run pass from Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings in the opener, head coach Lovie Smith’s team would be undefeated going into its Sunday night game at the Georgia Dome in Week 6.

After an inauspicious start to his career in the Windy City, quarterback Jay Cutler has dazzled with eight touchdowns (one rushing) and one interception and a 71 percent (66 of 93) completion rate during the winning streak. He also orchestrated late game-winning scoring drives to beat the Steelers (41 yards on eight plays to set up Robbie Gould’s 32-yard field goal with 15 seconds to go) and Seahawks (36-yard touchdown pass to Devin Hester with 1:52 remaining).

Much was written throughout the preseason about Chicago’s unproven crop of pass catchers aside from Hester and tight end Greg Olsen, but second-year guys Earl Bennett and Kellen Davis and rookie Johnny Knox are stepping up in a big way. Bennett is pacing the team in receptions with 15, Davis leads in touchdown catches with three, and Knox has two scoring grabs and a kickoff return for six.

Atlanta, which sits at 3-1 following a 45-10 waxing of San Francisco, has a good idea of the kind of damage Cutler’s capable of inflicting. He had a huge effort in the dome a year ago when he guided the Broncos to a 24-20 victory, going 19-for-27 for 216 yards and a touchdown for a 106.4 rating.

While Cutler beat the Falcons last season, the Bears did not despite taking the lead with 11 seconds left on a Gould field goal. A 26-yard pass from Matt Ryan to Michael Jenkins with a tick on the clock remaining set up Jason Elam’s 48-yard field goal at the gun, giving Atlanta a wild 22-20 win. Ryan gave Chicago’s defense fits all day and finished with 301 yards and hooked up with Roddy White for a touchdown.

The running game was the staple of the Falcons’ offense in 2008 when they rode Michael Turner (1,699 yards, 17 touchdowns) to an unexpected playoff appearance, but it has sputtered so far.

PREDICTION
Cutler had a horrific debut in the spotlight and now he’ll seek redemption against a defense similar to the one he faced last season in Atlanta. The Falcons, though, have the best offense the Bears have seen in almost a month and will squeak out the win.
ATLANTA 24, CHICAGO 16