2009-12-28

Dallas still has its sights set on the NFC East title after its upset win in New Orleans, but in order to set up the winner-take-all Week 17 matchup with Philadelphia, must get through Washington unscathed. The Redskins looked awful this past Monday night vs. the Giants, and predictably, bettors at Sportsbook.com are expecting a repeat performance, as over 80% of them are backing the Cowboys as 6.5-point favorites.

The Cowboys have gone 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their L11 visits to the nation’s capitol. However, they are 2-9 ATS in December under Wade Phillips and on a 7-17 ATS skid in divisional play as well. Washington is on a short week having just hosted the Giants on Monday night. The Redskins will be looking to extend an 11-1 ATS run in the second half of the season vs. prolific passing teams gaining >=260 PYPG. They are also just 6-20 ATS revenging a loss where they scored less than 9 points. Dallas won the first meeting between these teams 7-6 five weeks ago.

Talk about carrying out a gameplan to perfection? The Cowboys did just that last Saturday night in New Orleans, stunning the previously undefeated Saints, 24-17, and quieting a lot of critics in the process.

An aggressive, physical defense held the league’s highest-scoring team to its season-low point total and 174 yards through three quarters, Tony Romo threw for 312 yards and one touchdown and Marion Barber rushed for two scores as Dallas not only stopped its December bleeding but took a considerable step toward the playoffs.

Considering how the Cowboys forced Drew Brees off his game for much of the night, sacking him four times and causing a pair of turnovers, it’s hard to have any confidence Jason Campbell will be the reason the Redskins spring the upset. DeMarcus Ware, six days after he was carted off the field on a stretcher with a neck injury, sacked Brees twice as did fellow linebacker Anthony Spencer.

Dallas’ defense played well in the Week 11 meeting between these teams in Big D, but Washington was better for all but the final six minutes and Romo took advantage and pulled out a 7-6 victory. After since-cut kicker Shaun Suisham’s second missed field goal of the day kept it a one-possession game, Romo drove the Cowboys 60 yards on nine plays and hit Patrick Crayton with a 10-yard touchdown pass with 2:41 remaining to win it. Campbell did outgain Romo through the air, 256-to-158, but threw a costly interception to Spencer.

The Redskins, who had last place in the NFC East sealed well before Thanksgiving, might want to reconsider their starting running back for this one after Rock Cartwright’s significant contribution in the first go-round. He carried 13 times for 67 yards and led the team through the air as well with 73 yards on seven catches. Cartwright took a backseat to Quinton Ganther a few weeks ago and is likely to be used sparingly. In his first NFL start, Ganther produced 50 yards and two touchdowns in a blowout win in Oakland.

As for Washington’s defense, it must find a way to control Romo’s favorite target, Miles Austin. He burned New Orleans rookie corner Malcolm Jenkins on a stop-and-go for the game’s opening touchdown to set the tone and had seven receptions for 139 yards.

PREDICTION: Don’t hop on the Dallas bandwagon yet. While the Redskins haven’t won a lot, their defense allows fewer than 20 points per game and can be a serious factor when healthy. The way Nick Folk is going, nobody rooting for the team with a star on its helmet wants to see this come down to a kick. DALLAS 20, WASHINGTON 13