2009-12-04

The NFL has a very light schedule in the late afternoon on Sunday. In fact, there are only three contests, and only one of them has any real intrigue. Here’s a look at all three contests, with a pick on the big Cowboys-Giants clash.

(355) SAN DIEGO at (356) CLEVELAND

San Diego looks to continue its march towards a potential bye in the first round of the AFC playoffs when it travels to Cleveland. Since opening 2-3 in ’09, the Chargers have won six straight games to assume the lead in the AFC West Division. However, the Broncos are just a game back and nipping at their heels so every game is important the rest of the way. After this game, San Diego will face a difficult 3-game set but this is the time where they have typically turned it on under Norv Turner, going 12-2 SU & ATS in post-Thanksgiving holiday weekend games in his tenure. Cleveland has yet to win in four games at home in ’09, and is 0-9 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in its L9 as hosts overall. San Diego owns a 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS edge in its L7 games vs. the Browns.

(357) SAN FRANCISCO at (358) SEATTLE

Seattle returns home for the first time since November 8th, a welcomed event considering how much better the Seahawks have played at home in ’09 as compared to on the road. As host, they are 3-2 SU & ATS, outscoring foes by over 10 PPG. On the road, they’ve gone just 1-5 SU & ATS. They have also not lost a late season game ATS at home since ’06, going 7-0-1 ATS in post-Thanksgiving weekend games in that span. The 49ers won the September matchup between these teams, 23-10, gaining a season high 256 yards rushing. They are 1-4 SU on the road, but 3-0-2 ATS. Dating back to mid-’08, San Francisco is 6-2-2 ATS in away games. They have also swept their three games vs. NFC West rivals so far, both SU & ATS. Seattle is on a run of 12-4 ATS as a favorite.

The other game pits the Cowboys & Giants. Here is a pick on that contest from the StatFox Platinum Sheet: I see a lot of NFL commentators remarking about the importance of the Giants’ next two games in their quest for a playoff berth in 2009. My thought is this…Are the Giants really a playoff team? Would a playoff-caliber club be saddled by a trend like this one: NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was NY GIANTS 20.2, OPPONENT 31.7 - (Rating = 2*). At the same time, Dallas is 2-games better in the standings than New York, and was able to escape its recent offensive rut by still winning two of three games. Now that is what good teams do, and in this case, our good team will be motivated by revenge as well: Play On - Any team (DALLAS) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (59-27 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.6%, +29.3 units. Rating = 2*). Look for the Cowboys to put a first nail in the G-Men coffin for ’09. Play: Dallas