2009-11-16

The rivalry of the decade resumes Sunday night in Indianapolis when the Patriots visit the Colts. The stakes are high once again, as both teams are off to fast starts and considered top contenders for the AFC title. It wouldn’t be a shock if they meet again in January with a bigger prize on the line. Indy is a leery 3-point favorite, leery in the fact that 70% of bettors at Sportsbook.com were backing the Patriots according to the BETTING TRENDS page.

It’s been a thrilling head-to-head series since Bill Belichick arrived in New England in 2000. There’s really been two different era’s in the series, with the Patriots winning six straight games between 2001-04, and the Colts having since turned the tide, going 4-1 SU & ATS in the L5. Indy remains perfect at 8-0, but is just 1-3 ATS at home in ’09, and 4-10 ATS in its L14 as host overall. New England is 32-18 ATS as an underdog under Belichick.

A few weeks ago, Week 10’s Sunday night matchup pitting Tom Brady against Peyton Manning appeared to be another in a strong line of games with intriguing storylines for the ESPN crew. Continuous injuries to the Indianapolis defense, however, gives Brady and New England a huge upper hand when they take the field at the RCA Dome.

Running a close second to Manning in terms of earning the Colts 2009 MVP award, the training staff ranks as one of the most overworked in the NFL. On top of the normal sprains and nagging injuries that have already shelved running back Donald Brown (shoulder) and cornerback Kelvin Hayden (knee), Manning has watched six members of the defense go down for the year. Added to the list, prior to a 20-17 win over Houston last week, were cornerback Marlin Jackson (knee), linebacker Tyjuan Hagler (biceps) and most importantly, the heart and soul of the defense, safety Bob Sanders (elbow).

Brady had a full head of steam before the Patriots Week 8 bye, beating up on Tennessee and Tampa Bay for a combined 688 yards and nine touchdowns. He then torched Miami’s secondary for 332 more yards and a 71-yard scoring strike to Randy Moss in a 27-17 victory last Sunday.

In terms of raw numbers, Manning has enjoyed considerable success against New England during his career. But if there’s one player that casts a shadow even bigger than that of Manning, the multimedia superhero, Brady is it. The three-time Super Bowl winner owns two more titles than Manning. Four straight battles between the teams have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, including last season’s 18-15 decision taken by the Colts. The Matt Cassel-led Patriots managed just one touchdown and three field goals.

For all of the talk that has centered on Drew Brees and the Saints, or Brett Favre and the Vikings, very little seems focused on Manning himself, even in the midst of an 8-0 start. That’s partially due to a lack of star power surrounding him on offense, a terribly inconsistent running game, keyed by Joseph Addai (399 yards, 116 carries), and the continued decimation of the defense by the injury bug.

PREDICTION
Manning versus Brady always shapes up as a classic, and the Sunday night lights, coupled with Indianapolis’ perfect record, add to the hype. While Manning continues to do more with less, the defense can only bend so far before a quarterback like Brady breaks it. NEW ENGLAND 33, INDIANAPOLIS 27