2010-01-04

To the winner of the Philadelphia-Dallas conflict of Week 17 go the spoils of the coveted NFC East Division title. Both teams have already clinched playoff spots so all that’s left is to determine who plays who & where. If the Eagles win, they are the #2 seed. If the Cowboys win and get some help, they assume that spot. Stakes are high, and the hosts are a 3-point favorite at Sportsbook.com. At last check, 81% of the betting action is on Philly however.

With playoff stakes on the line a year ago in the season finale, Dallas was blasted by the Eagles in Philly, a 44-6 rout. The Cowboys got some payback for that by winning the first meeting between these teams, 20-16. That sets up a revenge spot for HC Andy Reid’s team, and they are 34-13 ATS with such motivation in his tenure. Overall, road teams are on a 16-9 ATS run in this divisional series, with Philly boasting a 7-6 SU & 10-3 ATS mark in Dallas. The Cowboys have covered just two of their L11 home games vs. NFC East rivals.

Philadelphia could be the most-feared team in the NFL after last week’s 30-27 win over Denver. Of course, that may also depend on how the defense regroups after the Broncos climbed off the mats to erase a 17-point deficit midway through the third quarter last Sunday.

Philadelphia stretched its winning streak to six games on the strength of more big plays between Donovan McNabb and his ever-growing list of pass-catching studs. He completed six throws of at least 21 yards, including three to tight end Brent Celek, who finished the day with four grabs for 121 yards and a touchdown. The 30 points helped the Eagles break the franchise scoring record, now at 429 (28.6 per game).

The way the offense has progressed for McNabb, no defense can figure out where the ball’s going next. Things become even more confusing for defenses now that Brian Westbrook has returned from a five-week absence (concussion). His 11 touches against Denver were more than any other Eagle, and even though Westbrook managed just 37 total yards, he’ll continue to see increased work.

The Cowboys clinched a wild-card berth with a 17-0 win at Washington last Sunday night and could win the NFC East by knocking off the Eagles in Week 17. It would almost be sweet revenge for Tony Romo, who suffered through one of his worst games in last year’s season-finale at Lincoln Financial Field. He completed 21 of 39 passes for 183 yards and an interception, lost a fumble that was returned 73 yards for a score and watched helplessly as Dallas was outscored 41-0 in the second and third quarters.

Romo avenged some of those Philadelphia demons in Week 8, throwing for 307 yards, and hit Miles Austin with the eventual game-winning 49-yard touchdown midway through the fourth quarter of a 20-16 win. McNabb was forced into a pair of interceptions—the first of two times it’s happened this season—and the Cowboys defense has slowly started to pick up steam down the stretch. After ending New Orleans unbeaten streak at 14 games by sacking Drew Brees four times and forcing a pair of fumbles, Dallas dropped Jason Campbell three times and generated one turnover. Philadelphia’s winning streak was nearly derailed by three turnovers last Sunday.

PREDICTION: Recent series history suggests an Eagles win, because the teams have alternated victories in the last five meetings. After early December struggles, however, the Cowboys have some swagger back. DALLAS 28, PHILADELPHIA 27

NFL: BALTIMORE at OAKLAND (4:15 PM ET, CBS)
Baltimore has put its playoff life on the line in three straight weeks, and despite the loss at Pittsburgh last Sunday, still controls its own destiny in terms of clinching a Wildcard spot. All that needs to be done for the Ravens is to win at lowly Oakland. Seems easy, right? You’d think so, but that’s why they play the games. Strangely, as 10.5 point underdogs at Sportsbook.com, over 90% of the money line wagers were calling for a Raiders upset.

If nothing else, Oakland’s improved play in recent weeks has given the franchise something to build on moving forward. A playoff-spoiling victory in the season finale vs. Baltimore would be another nice shot in the arm. Wins over the Ravens have come few and far between though for Oakland, as it is just 1-5 SU & ATS since ’96 in the head-to-head series, scoring 10.5 PPG. The Raiders are 15-29 ATS as a home dog as well, and 1-5 SU & ATS in their L6 home finales. Baltimore puts its playoff hopes on the line for a 4th straight week, looking to advance its record to 7-0 SU & ATS as a double-digit favorite under John Harbaugh. His club has also covered the spread in nine straight games vs. teams with a losing record, winning by a whopping 32.2-9.2 average margin.

Some teams have the luxury of resting key players the final week of the regular season as they gear up for the playoffs. That’s not the case for Baltimore, where every game has been a playoff battle for the last two months in the tightly contested AFC. The Ravens, making their second trip out west, are in dire need of a win after their two-game winning streak was snapped in a 23-20 loss at Pittsburgh.

While Oakland spent much of the first half of 2009 as the laughingstock of the league, losing four of its first seven games by at least 20 points, the Raiders have been anything but in November and December. Just ask Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Denver, all of which were in the playoffs or battling for a wild-card berth heading into Week 17. Throw in an October win over Philadelphia and things have improved in some respects since the disastrous start.

Given the signing of Charlie Frye, who assumed the starter’s role over JaMarcus Russell when Bruce Gradkowski went down, it’s clear the Russell era is nearing its end. Frye didn’t score many brownie points, however, in last week’s 23-9 loss to his former team, Cleveland, throwing three interceptions, including two in the red zone, among his 45 attempts. In two career starts against Baltimore, Frye has earned a split, losing a 15-14 decision in 2006 and winning a 20-16 battle in the ‘05 season finale. He was sacked 12 times in the two games and had four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles).

Joe Flacco’s up-and-down season continued against his biggest enemy, Pittsburgh, which held him to just 13 completions and 166 yards on 25 attempts. He did throw a pair of touchdowns but was sacked twice and fumbled on his last pass attempt with 2:34 to play. The Raiders have allowed a league-worst 16 completions of at least 40 yards and have just eight interceptions, giving Flacco and the Ravens a much better chance to keep the season alive.

The Ravens lead the all-time series, 4-1, and won last year’s meeting, 29-10, in Baltimore. The defense prevented Oakland from crossing midfield until the third quarter and limited the Raiders to just 47 yards rushing on 19 carries.

PREDICTION
Baltimore appeared to be peaking at the right time before its old nemesis stepped in and turned this Sunday’s game into yet another must-win situation. The Raiders have played well in the role of spoiler, particularly at home, but the Raven defense is perfectly suited to shut down the run and force Frye into more bad decisions. BALTIMORE 24, OAKLAND 13