2009-12-28

The Chargers and Titans bring in some holiday cheer with a Christmas Night game on NFL Network. The Chargers have wrapped up a first round playoff bye thanks to their win over Cincinnati and will play as the AFC’s #2 seed when the postseason kicks off in two weeks. Tennessee is still hoping to be part of that party and at 7-7, still has a chance in the crowded wildcard chase. The Titans have to win here though, and as a 3-point favorite, only a small group of bettors (11%) at Sportsbook.com like the chances of that happening.

The Titans will wrap up a 3-game homestand in this contest before heading to Seattle for the season finale. They are 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS at home in ’09, and 10-2-1 ATS in L13 as hosts overall. The Chargers are 12-0 SU & 10-3 ATS in December under Norv Turner, and have won the L5 games between these teams, both SU & ATS. San Diego is also on a nice run of 13-3 ATS vs. AFC South foes.

Philip Rivers fits into the same category of quarterback as Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, not in terms of Super Bowl titles or Most Valuable Player awards but shouldering nearly all of the offensive load.

San Diego’s running game has been almost non-existent, save for the goal line, averaging just 86.2 yards per game. It’s better than only Indianapolis and Chicago, while Rivers is on pace to set a career-high in attempts. He completed 24 of 38 throws in last week’s 27-24 win over Cincinnati, San Diego’s ninth consecutive victory, and is only 34 attempts shy of his personal high in the category with two games to play.

On the surface, Tennessee would appear to have a ball-control offense, but the big-play ability of Chris Johnson, the NFL’s rushing leader, gives the Titans the same type of score-from-anywhere element that the Chargers have with Rivers. His 20 runs of more than 40 yards are nearly double that of the next best back, Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, and he also has three 40-plus-yard receptions under his belt. Teams have had success pounding their way into the San Diego defense, averaging a healthy 116.9 yards per game, but few have found excessive free space. The Chargers have allowed just seven runs of more than 20 yards.

Tennessee cornerback Cortland Finnegan missed all three October games, and his absence certainly showed. After losing three September games by a combined 13 points, the Titans lost their next three, sans Finnegan, by a combined 101. He returned to the lineup in November, has picked off three passes since and the defense has allowed more than 17 points in just three of the last eight games.

Vince Young showed some flashes of his running ability in the Week 14 victory over St. Louis, but left after the 44-yard run because of a hamstring injury. He returned for last Sunday’s 27-24 overtime victory against Miami and played a more conventional game, rushing just twice for 24 yards.

The Chargers have won five straight in the series and own a 22-13-1 edge overall. The last time they met, in the first round of the 2007 playoffs, Rivers bested Young, 17-6, and threw for 292 yards.

PREDICTION: Last quarterback with the ball wins. Rivers has an ever-growing list of fourth-quarter comebacks to his name, while Young may have turned in one of the more probable game-winning drives in recent history (99-yarder against Arizona). Tennessee’s defined the term “playing for pride” and knocking off the red-hot Chargers would be another feather in its cap. TENNESSEE 36, SAN DIEGO 35