September 2010 NFL Events

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Preseason Friday night offers four wagering options
2010-08-27

The third full week of the NFL preseason got off to a scintillating start on Thursday night as the two contests produced a whopping 158 points. Does that mean we’re in for an explosive weekend of OVER betting? Typically, this week on the schedule gets the higher posted totals, since starters see the most playing time, but let’s be honest, Thursday’s results were ridiculous. Let’s take a look at the four games on tap for Friday to see if we can’t uncover any betting edges. Visit Sportsbook.com for the latest lines and game betting information.

Atlanta (1-1) at Miami (2-0), 7:00 p.m. EDT

Sportsbook.com Line: EVEN Total: 37.5

The Falcons’ first-team offense has yet to find the end zone through two preseason games, settling for a pair of FGs, one in each game. The team has scored just 30 points overall in its 1-1 start. Miami hasn’t exactly lit it up either though, mustering just 273.5 yards per game. Still, the Dolphins are 2-0, mostly by virtue of enjoying a 6:1 turnover edge.

Strangely, oddsmakers are giving the Falcons the benefit of the doubt in this one, listing the game as a pick em’ in Miami. That could prove to be beneficial for bettors who believe in systems like this one from StatFox: Play On - Underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, in the last two weeks of the preseason. (75-39 since 1993.) (65.8%, +32.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Washington (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1), 7:00 p.m. EDT

Sportsbook.com Line: New York -4.5 Total: 35

After an impressive 42-17 victory over the Bills in their opener, the Redskins were humbled by their neighbors from Baltimore, 23-3, last week. Donovan McNabb completed just 11-of-26 throws against the Ravens and will sit out the game against the Jets because of an ankle injury, meaning backup quarterback Rex Grossman will start and likely play into the third quarter.

The Jets failed to find the end zone in a 9-3 win over the Panthers, gaining just 112 yards of total offense. Fortunately for the Jets, they only allowed 175 yards and forced 5 turnovers.

The Redskins may have a tough time scoring this week facing the vaunted Jets defense and as a franchise, they haven’t been very good on the road in the preseason anyhow: WASHINGTON is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. The average score was WASHINGTON 12.7, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 3*).

San Diego (1-1) at New Orleans (1-1), 8:00 p.m. EDT

Sportsbook.com Line: New Orleans -3 Total: 42.5

The third preseason game is traditionally when the starters see the majority of the action, and the game on Friday night’s board that has the best potential to match Thursday’s shootouts is that between the Chargers and Saints from New Orleans. It is an intriguing matchup that will be nationally televised on CBS.

After posting a 25-10 win over the Bears, the Chargers dropped a 16-14 decision to the Cowboys in their second preseason outing. The Saints bounced back from their opening loss to the Patriots by routing the Texans 38-20. The defending Super Bowl champs piled up 198 yards on the ground.

In terms of trends, San Diego is on a 10-1 ATS preseason run when coming off of a home loss. They are also 9-0 OVER the total when allowing less than 200 yards in the previous game. The Chargers yielded just 194 to Dallas last weekend.

Philadelphia (1-1) at Kansas City (0-2), 8:00 p.m. EDT

Sportsbook.com Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 37.5

I’m admittedly not a fan of playing road favorites in the preseason, unless of course, the home team has demonstrated an indifference to winning or losing. That doesn’t figure to be the case for the Chiefs, who are 0-2 but trying to build momentum and develop chemistry under their reworked coaching staff. They have actually outgained their first two opponents, both on the road by 41 yards per game.

Philadelphia is 1-1 in the exhibition campaign thus far and coming off a 22-9 loss at the hands of Cincinnati. The Eagles turned the ball over five times in that game. They have become accustomed to struggling against the AFC at this time of year:

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 22.8, OPPONENT 28.2 - (Rating = 1*)

This game boasts one of the top StatFox systems of the week, and it suggests that K.C. is due for a bounceback performance:

• Play On - Home underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread. (21-5 since 1993.) (80.8%, +15.5 units. Rating = 2*)

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NFL Preseason Week 3 kicks off Thursday
2010-08-25

It’s commonly believed that that the third full week of the NFL preseason is the “dress rehearsal” for the regular season openers. Most coaches will go with their expected starters for up to three quarters of the action. Therefore, you would think that bettors who have been studying their materials over the offseason would be well prepared for what happens this weekend. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the two games that will jumpstart the schedule. According to oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com, New England is a 7.5-point favorite over St. Louis, and Green Bay is laying 3.5-points to Indy at home.
St. Louis (1-1) at New England (2-0), 7:30 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: New England -7.5 Total: 37.5
Coming off a pair of rough performances, number one overall pick Sam Bradford is expected to get the start at QB for the Rams due to thumb and elbow injuries to starter A.J. Feeley. Bradford has completed just 44 percent (12-27) of his passes so far and has yet to find the end zone. On the bright side, he has not thrown a pick either.
The Patriots have displayed a balanced run-pass attack in winning their first two preseason games over the Saints and the Falcons. Veterans Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris both topped 50 yards against the Falcons and both scored on TD runs of 20 yards or more. Meanwhile, Tom Brady completed 10 of 12 passes for 85 yards and a TD to rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez. Fellow rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski also caught a TD pass courtesy of backup QB Brian Hoyer.
The Patriots are an obvious favorite in this matchup, but there are conflicting handicapping signs from StatFox demonstrating their ability to cover the rather large number in this contest.
First off, this system suggests the Rams are due for a bounceback:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) - after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game. (53-24 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.8%, +26.6 units. Rating = 2*)
That angle boasts a perfect 6-0 ATS record over the last three seasons, including 1-0 last weekend.
Still, statistically speaking, this game could be a mismatch. The Rams were outgained by 188 yards per game in their first two preseason affairs, while New England has outscored its foes by 10.5 PPG in going 2-0 SU & ATS. As such, the StatFox Game Estimator calls for a 31-11 rout.
Indianapolis (0-2) at Green Bay (1-1), 8:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Green Bay -3.5, Total: 44
The Colts travel to Green Bay Thursday night still looking for their first win of the preseason. They are infamous for not typically giving a hoot about what happens in these games, but it is apparent that oddsmakers and bettors are expecting a different type of effort today. For one, the Colts are only a 3.5-point dog at Lambeau Field after playing as 4-point dogs at home against San Francisco and in Toronto against the Bills. For two, the line actually opened as Green Bay -4, but has dumped a half-point since.
Peyton Manning played five series and led the Colts to a pair of TD (one rush, one pass) in the first quarter of their 34-21 loss to the Bills last Thursday, but also had an INT returned 78 yards for a score. The Colts D surrendered a pair of long first-quarter scores: a 31-yard run and a 70-yard pass. Backup Curtis Painter bounced back from a dismal opener to complete 5-of-6 passes for 97 yards, including a 43-yard TD strike to Taj Smith.
The Packers dropped their preseason opener to the Browns 27-24, but bounced back to beat the Seahawks by the same score in their second game. Through two games, Aaron Rodgers is already in midseason form, having completed 20-of-24 attempts for 275 yards and 3 TD without an INT. Backup Matt Flynn has not been as sharp, connecting on 19-of- 35 for 199 yards and 2 INT without throwing a TD. He’s also been sacked three times to Rodgers’ none.
It’s difficult to think the Colts would go winless in the preseason again. Consider this system from FoxSheets:

Play On - Underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - winless in the preseason. (80-42 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.6%, +33.8 units. Rating = 2*).
However, this game also has a large statistical imbalance, like the Patriots-Rams game. Perhaps a play on the total makes more sense:

INDIANAPOLIS is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1993 in the preseason. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.5, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 3*)

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Football betting: Colts favored to win Super Bowl XLV
2010-08-25

Despite coming up short in last year's Super Bowl, the Indianapolis Colts enter the 2010 NFL campaign as the favorite to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. In the football betting lines at www.sportsbook.com, the Colts are a +700 choice to win a championship. Led by MVP quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis has won 12 or more games in the regular season in each of the last seven years. However, the Colts have been able to cash in with only one Super Bowl title back in 2006. This season, Indy will face a challenging stretch following a bye in week 7.

After the bye, the Colts will play seven straight games against squads that finished .500 or better in 2009. Five of those games will be against clubs that went to the postseason last year. The franchise that will showcase its home stadium in Super Bowl XLV is the top contender from the NFC. The Dallas Cowboys (+800) are looking to take the next step in 2010 after gaining a playoff win in 2009 for the first time in over a decade. With a talented and balanced squad, the Cowboys could be ready to be an elite club in 2010. There could be a potential Super Bowl preview in week 13 when the Cowboys travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts.

In the prior week, Dallas will entertain the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving Day. New Orleans listed at www.sportsbook.com at (+800) is the third top contender in the Super Bowl pool. Quarterback Drew Brees leads an explosive offense for the Saints. While the defense gave up plenty of yards last season, the unit had a knack of creating big plays with turnovers. After opening at home against Minnesota in a rematch of the NFC Championship game, New Orleans will face only one playoff team from 2009 over its next nine games.

The San Diego Chargers are the next choice at +1000. San Diego has won four straight AFC West titles but has been unable to reach a Super Bowl during the stretch. In a division that appears to be the weakest in the conference, the Chargers have a decent shot to gain home field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. San Diego will only have to face four teams this year that reached the postseason in 2009. The Green Bay Packers (+800) appear to have made a nice transition from the Brett Favre era after making the playoffs last year behind emerging quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers are going to become a legitimate contender in 2010, the club will need to matchup better against the Vikings (0-2 vs. Minnesota in 2009).
In a period of under a month, Green Bay will face defending NFC North champion Minnesota twice. The first meeting will be a Sunday night contest at Lambeau Field in week 7. In week 11, the Packers will battle the Vikings at the Metrodome.

The New England Patriots (+1200) were the NFL's top squad in the last decade with three championships. However, the Patriots last Super Bowl crown was back in 2004. Quarterback Tom Brady will try to get his club back to the top this season in a deep AFC field. In its first seven games of the season, New England will face five teams that reached the playoffs in 2009.

A popular team in football betting circles heading into 2010 is the Baltimore Ravens (+1200). Behind young quarterback Joe Flacco, the Ravens have reached the postseason in each of the last two years as a Wild Card. While Baltimore has won three road playoff games since 2008, the team would like to take an easier path this season as a division champion. The addition of veteran wideout Anquan Boldin should enable the Ravens offense to be a little more dangerous this season. Baltimore's initial five road games of 2010 will be against squads that posted winning records in 2009.

The Super Bowl hopes of the Minnesota Vikings (+1200) could be derailed before the season begins. If Brett Favre decides not to return for a second year with the Vikings, Minnesota will have to rely on a couple of marginal quarterbacks in 2010. Without Favre, the Vikings go from a legitimate title contender to a squad that will have to battle just to reach the playoffs.

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Football betting: Colts favored to win Super Bowl XLV
2010-08-24

Despite coming up short in last year's Super Bowl, the Indianapolis Colts enter the 2010 NFL campaign as the favorite to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. In the football betting lines at www.sportsbook.com, the Colts are a +700 choice to win a championship. Led by MVP quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis has won 12 or more games in the regular season in each of the last seven years. However, the Colts have been able to cash in with only one Super Bowl title back in 2006. This season, Indy will face a challenging stretch following a bye in week 7.

After the bye, the Colts will play seven straight games against squads that finished .500 or better in 2009. Five of those games will be against clubs that went to the postseason last year. The franchise that will showcase its home stadium in Super Bowl XLV is the top contender from the NFC. The Dallas Cowboys (+800) are looking to take the next step in 2010 after gaining a playoff win in 2009 for the first time in over a decade. With a talented and balanced squad, the Cowboys could be ready to be an elite club in 2010. There could be a potential Super Bowl preview in week 13 when the Cowboys travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts.

In the prior week, Dallas will entertain the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving Day. New Orleans listed at www.sportsbook.com at (+800) is the third top contender in the Super Bowl pool. Quarterback Drew Brees leads an explosive offense for the Saints. While the defense gave up plenty of yards last season, the unit had a knack of creating big plays with turnovers. After opening at home against Minnesota in a rematch of the NFC Championship game, New Orleans will face only one playoff team from 2009 over its next nine games.

The San Diego Chargers are the next choice at +1000. San Diego has won four straight AFC West titles but has been unable to reach a Super Bowl during the stretch. In a division that appears to be the weakest in the conference, the Chargers have a decent shot to gain home field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. San Diego will only have to face four teams this year that reached the postseason in 2009. The Green Bay Packers (+800) appear to have made a nice transition from the Brett Favre era after making the playoffs last year behind emerging quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers are going to become a legitimate contender in 2010, the club will need to matchup better against the Vikings (0-2 vs. Minnesota in 2009).

In a period of under a month, Green Bay will face defending NFC North champion Minnesota twice. The first meeting will be a Sunday night contest at Lambeau Field in week 7. In week 11, the Packers will battle the Vikings at the Metrodome.

The New England Patriots (+1200) were the NFL's top squad in the last decade with three championships. However, the Patriots last Super Bowl crown was back in 2004. Quarterback Tom Brady will try to get his club back to the top this season in a deep AFC field. In its first seven games of the season, New England will face five teams that reached the playoffs in 2009.

A popular team in football betting circles heading into 2010 is the Baltimore Ravens (+1200). Behind young quarterback Joe Flacco, the Ravens have reached the postseason in each of the last two years as a Wild Card. While Baltimore has won three road playoff games since 2008, the team would like to take an easier path this season as a division champion. The addition of veteran wideout Anquan Boldin should enable the Ravens offense to be a little more dangerous this season. Baltimore's initial five road games of 2010 will be against squads that posted winning records in 2009.

The Super Bowl hopes of the Minnesota Vikings (+1200) could be derailed before the season begins. If Brett Favre decides not to return for a second year with the Vikings, Minnesota will have to rely on a couple of marginal quarterbacks in 2010. Without Favre, the Vikings go from a legitimate title contender to a squad that will have to battle just to reach the playoffs.          

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Football betting: AFC South/West Regular Season Wins Predictions
2010-08-24

Over under lines supplied by www.sportsbook.com the home of NFL betting.

The Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 11) have been the most consistent team in the NFL over the last several years. In each of the last seven seasons, Indy has won 12 or more games in the regular season. With MVP quarterback Peyton Manning showing no signs of slowing down, the Colts should continue to be an elite team as a new decade begins. While the offense gets most of the headlines for the club, the defense has ranked in the top 8 in the NFL in scoring defense in four of the last five years. The schedule will have some challenges but the Colts will only have to face two playoff squads from 2009 on the road. Indianapolis goes over the football betting number with another big regular season.

After breaking through for the first winning season in the history of the franchise in 2009, the Houston Texans (O/U: 8) will try to take the next step with a postseason bid in 2010. While the club's passing game is one of the NFL's best, the offense could use some better production on the ground. The defense (13th in NFL in total defense in 2009) has gradually improved in recent years. Houston produces another winning campaign to go over the total.

It was a tale of two seasons for the Tennessee Titans (O/U: 8) in 2009. After an 0-6 start, the club went 8-2 the rest of the way. Running back Chris Johnson will once again be a difference maker after rushing for over 2,000 yards in 2009 but the Titans playoff hopes in 2010 will be determined by the performance of quarterback Vince Young. A defense that struggled last year has lost some key veterans. Tennessee comes up short of the .500 mark for an under.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U: 7) appear to be the weak link in the AFC South. The club has managed only 12 wins over the last two seasons. With the exception of dynamic running back Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jags don't have any other impact performers on either side of the ball. In a deep division, Jacksonville is overmatched to yield an under.

In the AFC West, the San Diego Chargers (O/U: 11) are an overwhelming football betting favorite to win the division title for a fifth straight year. The club has undergone a bit of a transition from 2009. LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Cromartie are now with the New York Jets. In the preseason, the Chargers are dealing with a couple of key holdouts. Still, there is plenty of talent to work with in San Diego. Quarterback Phillip Rivers is one of the best signal-callers in the league. The defense will be looking for some more consistency. A reasonable schedule should enable the Chargers to go over with at least 11 victories.

In each of the last two seasons, the Denver Broncos (O/U: 7) have started quickly before fading in the second half of the year. While the team just missed the postseason a year ago, expectations aren't too high in 2010. A couple of key personnel losses will make it difficult for the Broncos to challenge for the playoffs again this season. Star wide receiver Brandon Marshall is now with the Miami Dolphins. On defense, linebacker Elvis Dumervil (led NFL with 17 sacks in 2009) is expected to miss most of the season due to injury. Denver takes a step back in 2010 for an under.

The Kansas City Chiefs (O/U: 6.5) have struggled to a 10-38 record since 2007. However, the club is on the right track under second-year head coach Todd Haley. With a backfield combo of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, Kansas City should have one of the top running back duos in the league in 2010. The defense has a long way to go but the unit should be better this year. In a mediocre division beyond San Diego, the Chiefs manage at least seven wins for an over.

In each of the last seven years, the Oakland Raiders (O/U: 6.5) have lost at least 11 games. While former Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell (20-32 record as starter) should help the offense improve a little bit, he may not be the right player to turn around the team's losing culture. Despite some talented players on the defensive side of the ball, the Raiders have finished in the bottom 10 in the league in total defense in each of the last two years. Oakland's losing way continue for an under in 2010.

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